What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to evaluate two methods for predicting minimum temperatures at Alice Springs aerodrome.

February 5, 2026

An objective aid for minimum temperature forecasts - Alice Springs, Northern Territory

Key Points

The aim is to evaluate two methods for predicting minimum temperatures at Alice Springs aerodrome.
Analyzed data from 1800 CST the previous night
Applied simple linear regression on air temperature
Employed radiative flux measurements at 1800 CST for prediction
Linear regression provided useful results but was unstable with independent data
Radiative flux method achieved similar accuracy to regression but showed greater stability
Radiative flux method can be easily adapted for cloudy nights

Abstract

The prediction of minimum temperatures at Alice Springs aerodrome, using data for 1800 CST the previous night, is examined by two methods. Simple linear regression on air temperature yielded useful results on development data, but was unstable on independent data. No improvement was associated with the inclusion of additional parameters. The second method, based on radiative flux at 1800 CST, gave approximately the same accuracy as the regression technique but was more stable for independent data. It has the added advantage of being more easily adapted to cloudy nights.

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