What does this research mean for the field?

The XGBoost algorithm predicts postoperative neurological dysfunction in acute Stanford type A aortic dissection patients with an AUC of 0.966 in internal validation and 0.951 in external validation. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.METHODOLOGICAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to develop and validate a machine learning model to predict postoperative neurological dysfunction in acute Stanford type A aortic dissection patients.

February 16, 2026Open Access

Research on a machine learning-based predictive model for postoperative neurological dysfunction in acute Stanford type A aortic dissection

Key Points

The aim is to develop and validate a machine learning model to predict postoperative neurological dysfunction in acute Stanford type A aortic dissection patients.
Conducted a retrospective analysis on 1,228 ATAAD patients.
Divided 853 patients into control and neurological dysfunction groups for model training.
Applied four machine learning models (SVC-LK, Nu-SVC, AdaBoost, XGBoost) using perioperative data.
Assessed model performance using ROC-AUC, SHAP for feature selection, and compared with logistic regression.
XGBoost model achieved the highest AUC of 0.966 in internal validation.
External validation of XGBoost yielded an AUC of 0.951.
XGBoost outperformed logistic regression and other machine learning models.

Abstract

Introduction This study aimed to construct and validate a machine learning (ML) model integrating preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative multimodal clinical data for individualized prediction of postoperative neurological dysfunction (ND) in patients with acute Stanford type A aortic dissection (ATAAD). Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 1,228 ATAAD patients (Aortic Disease Center of Beijing Anzhen Hospital, January 2020–December 2023): 853 patients (January 2020–December 2022) for model training/internal validation (via 10-fold cross-validation) and 375 patients (January–December 2023) for external validation. The 853 patients were grouped into control ( n = 616) and ND ( n = 237), including 203 transient ND (TND) and 34 permanent ND (PND) groups. Data were analyzed using Mann–Whitney U , chi-square ( χ 2 ), and Fisher’s exact tests ( p 0.05). Four ML models (SVC-LK, Nu-SVC, AdaBoost, XGBoost) were built with perioperative data; SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) selected 15 robust features from 49 initial ones. Model performance was assessed via ROC-AUC (10-fold cross-validation for training/internal validation, external validation for effectiveness), and the optimal model was identified using DeLong test (two-tailed p -values). A multidimensional analysis compared the optimal model with traditional logistic regression (LR). Results The XGBoost model exhibited the best performance: AUC = 0.966 (internal validation) and AUC = 0.951 (external validation), outperforming LR and the other three ML models. Conclusion The XGBoost algorithm demonstrates superior efficacy in predicting postoperative ND in acute ATAAD patients, providing postoperative early warning, identifying high-risk patients, offering clinical guidance, and enabling timely intervention.

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