Thermodynamic Conditions for Emergence and Maintenance in Open Systems: A Structural Diagnosis of Modern Civilization

This paper derives the structural conditions under which emergence and long-term maintenance are possible in open systems, based on the Second Law of Thermodynamics and the irreversibility inherent in non-equilibrium dynamics. Rather than transferring physical quantities to social phenomena, the analysis employs structural homology—irreversibility, accumulation, and constraint—as domain-independent limitations that shape the space of possible system behaviors. We introduce the concept of a Heterostable Zone (HZ), defined as the range of stock–flux configurations within which multiple stable states can dynamically coexist and unresolved uncertainty remains operative. Outside this zone, systems collapse either into dissipation due to excessive flux or into rigidity due to excessive stock accumulation. From this thermodynamic premise, we deductively derive three necessary structural conditions for sustaining emergence within the HZ: (i) evaluation-free uncertainty retention through decision latency, preventing premature convergence; (ii) selective termination of obsolete structures via adaptive pruning, preventing cumulative rigidity; and (iii) appropriately scaled feedback times that allow consequences to be observed within structural lifetimes. In physical and chemical systems, these conditions are embedded in governing laws and entail no maintenance cost. In biological and ecological systems, they are enforced through evolutionary selection at energetic cost. Modern civilization, however, constitutes a distinct informational layer characterized by representational capacities that allow these maintenance costs to be systematically shifted across time, hierarchy, and social boundaries. We diagnose contemporary civilization as operating in an expansion-accelerated regime that suppresses these structural conditions while maintaining high output, resulting in latent fragility rather than immediate collapse. This work offers a non-normative, structural diagnosis of civilization sustainability and delineates the constraints within which any viable intervention must operate.