Water Resource Allocation: A Learning-Based Optimization Framework for Sustainable Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Water allocation remains a critical global challenge due to increasing scarcity, competing sectoral demands, and environmental pressures, requiring approaches that balance efficiency, equity, and ecosystem sustainability while facing the inherent contextual uncertainty. Recent developments in operations research and statistical learning have paved the way for a new paradigm in nonlinear modeling under uncertainty, i.e., contextual optimization. This emerging framework seamlessly combines predictive analytics with robust optimization techniques to address sustainable decision-making problems in dynamic environments. In this study, we introduce a novel learning-enabled optimization method that extends the current domain of contextual stochastic optimization. Leveraging regression-based statistical learning techniques, our approach enhances predictive accuracy and reinforces decision robustness. Unlike traditional methods, which often struggle with parameter variability and unbounded solution spaces, our model establishes clear predictive bounds that reduce the uncertainty region, thereby minimizing deviations from optimality. We apply our methodology to water allocation in Tunisia’s coastal tourism sector (2010–2022), where resource availability is constrained and highly variable. While developed for this specific context, the framework is transferable to similar Mediterranean arid/semi-arid tourism regions subject to certain data and governance conditions. The proposed approach accurately predicts water demand and optimizes the allocation of diverse water sources, contributing to sustainable water resource management. This paper presents both theoretical foundations and practical applications of our method in complex, data-driven decision environments, demonstrating its relevance for achieving sustainable development goals.