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This research aims to assess how urban planning impacts flood resilience under different socioeconomic scenarios in the Pearl River Delta.

February 19, 2026Open Access

Modeling urban planning contributions to flood resilience under shared socioeconomic pathways

Key Points

This research aims to assess how urban planning impacts flood resilience under different socioeconomic scenarios in the Pearl River Delta.
Integrated urban planning into simulations of extreme rainfall flooding
Assessed flood hazard and population exposure across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for 2035
Evaluated changes in hazard levels and population exposure percentages under each scenario.
Flood hazard decreases by roughly 10% in SSP1 but increases up to 12% in SSP5
Population exposure increases by 21% in SSP1, 25% in SSP2, 13% in SSP3, and 56% in SSP5
Asset exposure rises significantly, from 29% in SSP3 to over 100% in SSP5.

Abstract

Abstract Flooding from short-duration extreme rainfall poses growing risks to rapidly urbanizing regions under climate change. This study integrates 2035 urban planning into simulations of extreme rainfall-induced flooding in the Pearl River Delta Metropolitan region. Results show that while urban planning has limited impact on reducing overall hazard, it plays a critical role in redistributing it spatially. Flood hazard and exposure in 2035 were assessed under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Hazard decreases by about 10% in SSP1, remains stable in SSP2, and rises in SSP3 and SSP5, with SSP5 showing a 12% increase. Population exposure grows across all scenarios, with increases of 21% in SSP1, 25% in SSP2, 13% in SSP3, and 56% in SSP5. Asset exposure shows even larger increases, from 29% in SSP3 to more than 100% in SSP5. These results highlight that while urban planning can alleviate hazard locally, long-term resilience is dominated by socioeconomic development trajectories.

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