Growth, trends and future projections in India’s horticulture sector: insights from a time series analysis

India’s horticulture sector is vital for boosting farm incomes, securing livelihoods, and supporting foreign exchange earnings. The study analyses the growth of India’s horticulture sector (fruits, vegetables, and other horticultural crops) from 1991–92 to 2023–24, a period chosen for its significant policy changes and technological advancements. (Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Government of India, Area and Production of Horticulture Crops, Government of India, 2025). Key objectives include examining historical trends, identifying production drivers, applying ARIMA models for forecasting, and recommending strategies for sustainable growth. Data from national and international sources were analyzed using descriptive statistics, regression analysis, and ARIMA modeling. The study shows a remarkable increase in fruit (291.43%) and vegetable (257.73%) production. ARIMA models yielded highly accurate forecasts (R2 > 0.98), confirming their suitability for predicting horticultural trends. The study finds that the area under cultivation and yield per hectare are the strongest predictors of output across horticultural crops. It highlights the importance of investing in technology, infrastructure, and market access to enhance productivity and minimize post-harvest losses. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to support evidence-based planning and ensure the sector’s long-term resilience and competitiveness.