Environmental Degradation in Iraq: Attribution of Climatic Change and Human Influences Through Multi-Factor Analysis

Environmental degradation in Iraq is a critical issue that requires strong monitoring. One indication of land degradation is a decrease in or loss of vegetation cover. This study examines changes in vegetation and productivity in the Thi-Qar region from 2001 to 2022, using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and net primary production (NPP), and their response to climatic and hydrological factors. To address the gap in assessments that simultaneously quantify the influence of streamflow, rainfall, and temperature across distinct land cover classes in arid and semi-arid regions, we developed a replicable multi-source geospatial framework. We used MODIS data within the Google Earth Engine platform to perform spatiotemporal analysis. We applied models to detect NDVI trends on a pixel-by-pixel basis. This study provides the first integrated, data-driven assessment of vegetation sensitivity to streamflow versus climate in the Thi-Qar Governorate using a harmonized multi-source dataset. This combines the FAO WaPOR NPP dataset with hydrological (streamflow) and climatic (CHIRPS rainfall, MODIS LST) variables within an analytical workflow to extract anthropogenic water management from climatic drivers. The results showed variations in the NDVI and productivity in the southern and southwestern regions, indicating areas of both degradation and improvement. The analysis found that 12% of the study area showed improvement, while 56.5% of the area showed degradation. Additionally, we classified the study area as either vegetation (cropland) or non-vegetation (fallow arable land, bare areas, and sand dunes). A multiple regression model was then applied to these categories to examine the relationships between streamflow, precipitation, land surface temperature (LST), and the NDVI. The multiple regression for the entire region showed that these factors explained 45.1% of NDVI variation, with streamflow being the most significant positive driver (p < 0.001). The result showed that the NDVI in cropland and arable land was strongly positively correlated with both precipitation and streamflow (R = 0.78, R = 0.75). In contrast, bare land and dunes showed weaker relationships (R = 0.26 and 0.51, respectively). Of these factors, streamflow had the most significant influence in explaining vegetation change (partial correlation p = 0.53), indicating the importance of human management in addition to climate.