A Hybrid Irreversibility-Constrained Contraction Framework for Deterministic Capital Governance Under Structural Volatility

Large-scale capital allocation under long-horizon structural commitment exhibits a fundamental asymmetry: expected returns remain probabilistic, while irreversibility accumulates deterministically through capital lock-in and institutional rigidity. Classical net present value and real options approaches optimize expected value under uncertainty but do not formally constrain the feasible decision domain as structural irreversibility deepens. This paper introduces a hybrid irreversibility-constrained contraction framework for deterministic capital governance under structural volatility. The model integrates three core mechanisms: (i) a formally defined irreversibility index capturing capital lock-in, exit cost, policy rigidity, and time-to-reversal; (ii) a volatility-dependent contraction mapping that reduces the feasible authority set as regime uncertainty intensifies; and (iii) a deterministic replay-verifiable simulation constraint ensuring audit-grade reproducibility. The authority function is constructed as a non-linear transformation in which irreversibility amplification increases with capital maturity, generating path-dependent governance sensitivity. When irreversibility exceeds a predefined structural threshold, the feasible decision set collapses to a hard-stop boundary condition. An illustrative LNG capital allocation scenario demonstrates how carbon price shocks and volatility regime shifts contract authority non-linearly under increasing maturity. The framework does not execute decisions autonomously; rather, it conditions and constrains institutional authority under irreversible commitment dynamics. The contribution lies in formalizing governance-constrained contraction under structural irreversibility, integrating fixed-point stability, path-dependent amplification, and replay-verifiable determinism into a unified capital governance architecture.