D6.5 - Value chain modeling at the actor level using GLOBIOM

One of the objectives of the CLEVER project is to improve and mobilize modelling tools to explore the effectiveness of innovative international trade and supply chain governance interventions on non-food biomass supply chains and biodiversity. This modelling component relies on the GLOBIOM land use model, which projects the dynamics of most important agricultural and forestry supply chains and their impacts on natural resources from the year 2000 into the future with a decadal time step (up to 2050 or even 2100).As compared to other forward-looking dynamic supply chains modelling tools, this model has a relatively broad and yet detailed modelling of supply chains, covering globally the consumer demand for final products, trade and the supply of products at the scale of 59 market regions and for more than 50 products. The modelling of each agricultural and forestry production activities and related land and water use is done at the subnational scale, with multiple crop, livestock and forestry management intensities and a detailed land cover and land use change representation. A recent extension was allowed to cover blue food supply chains, i.e., fish and seafood. The modelling relies on a large number of datasets from various sources (e.g., ranging from country-level or regional-level price elasticities and official statistics, to high spatial resolution datasets such remote sensing-based land cover products and biophysical model outputs). The standard version of the model balances across several priorities (e.g., high level of detail in modelled variables, use of globally available data products, sufficiently low computation time) and is continuously updated as new datasets and methods become available, and specific modelling goals are pursued.The model and scenario applications in CLEVER focus on the nexus of trade, supply chain governance and biodiversity impacts for three specific supply chains: soy – with a particular focus on Brazil and the EU, forest biomass – with a specific focus on Brazil and the EU, and aquaculture and aquafeed (globally). In order to improve the underlying GLOBIOM modelling framework for the CLEVER project, a number of activities have been undertaken in Workpackage 6. Deliverable 6.2 reported on initial supply chain modelling improvements (Task 6.2), with explicit integration of the outputs of other tasks in WP6 such as new biophysical modelling outputs (Task 6.1), and improved biodiversity modelling methods and data (Task 6.3).This deliverable (D 6.5) presents additional model developments that have been undertaken under task 6.5 for each supply chain, with a focus on value chain modeling at the actor level.