Risk Analysis of Critical Port Infrastructure/Facilities and Operations in Nigeria

The continuous operation of the critical infrastructure, especially seaports, is essential to economic stability and supply chain integrity. Nevertheless, seaports in developing countries such as Nigeria are systematically threatened by factors such as institutional weaknesses (e.g. corruption) and widespread maritime insecurity. This paper fills a major empirical gap by examining the efficacy of integrated risk management strategies in facilitating seaport resilience in this high-risk environment. The study employed a mixed-method design and conducted a cross-sectional survey of 80 key stakeholders in the five major ports of operation in Nigeria. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was employed to test the relationships between four risk management strategies- Proactive Risk Anticipation and Assessment (PRAA), Infrastructure Resilience Measures (IRM), Operational Preparedness and Response (OPR), and Adaptive Governance and Policy (AGP)- and three dimensions of seaport resilience: robustness, restorative capacity, and adaptive capacity. Contextual factors, including corruption and resource availability, were modelled as moderating influences. The SEM demonstrated excellent model fit (Root Mean Square Error RMSEA = 0.024; Comparative Fit Index CFI = 0.993; Tucker-Lewis Index TLI = 0.992). Results indicate that Infrastructure Resilience Measures exert the strongest positive effect on restorative capacity (β = 0.284, p .001), while Proactive Risk Anticipation significantly enhances robustness (β = 0.136, p .001). Operational Preparedness primarily drives adaptive capacity (β = 0.075, p .01), and Adaptive Governance positively influences recovery performance (β = 0.131, p .01). Notably, contextual factors exhibit a strong negative moderating influence on restorative capacity (β = 0.297, p .001), underscoring the constraining role of institutional weaknesses. The findings demonstrate that while technical and operational risk management strategies are necessary for seaport resilience, their effectiveness is significantly conditioned by governance quality and resource availability. Institutional reform is therefore a prerequisite for maximizing the resilience of critical seaport infrastructure in high-risk maritime environments e.g. Nigeria and Gulf of Guinea.