A Risk-Based simulation approach to assessing seaport resilience against cyclone hazards

Seaports face intensifying cyclone risks due to climate change, yet comprehensive risk-based approaches quantifying the probability and consequences of such impacts on port functionality and economic performance remain scarce. This study integrates probabilistic modelling of cyclone occurrence with asset-level fragility and downtime analysis to estimate functional degradation while quantifying direct physical damage and associated economic impacts on port operations . The Port of Kaohsiung, in southwestern Taiwan, serves as the case study, drawing on terminal records and historical cyclone data to simulate throughput loss under varying cyclone types and intensities. The research findings enable port authorities to assess port capacity to withstand and recover from disruptions and to design targeted adaptation and restoration strategies. By combining realistic data, advanced simulation, and a holistic resilience perspective, this study makes significant contributions to the development of a cost-effective decision-support tool for long-term port sustainability.