Conflict monitoring with VIIRS Nightfire: the war in Ukraine

Abstract Amid rising geopolitical instability, timely, systematic, and independent monitoring of conflict zones is essential. We show how nighttime thermal anomalies from spaceborne sensors can be combined with boundary data, territorial control vector data, and high-resolution damage assessments to generate indicators of conflict at different levels of analysis. Leveraging the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s Nightfire product, we extract signals of conflict across Ukraine, tracking the status of heavy industry, delineating the frontline, and detecting urban combat. Although VIIRS data face challenges such as low spatial resolution and susceptibility to atmospheric interference, we find that these can provide valuable insights when paired with supporting geodata. Our results thus support fast, low-cost, and scalable monitoring of conflict zones, enabling timely intelligence in rapidly evolving scenarios.