Power Transition and Pragmatic Adaptation: Iran's Strategic Approach to China, Russia and the GCC

ABSTRACT This study examines how Iranian strategic thinkers conceptualise the country's ‘Look East’ policy (i.e., relations with China and Russia) and the GCC states. Using thematic qualitative content analysis of approximately 70 documents from Iranian state official, advisory and academic institutions (2015–2025), it reveals that Iran's eastward orientation is shaped by economic imperatives stemming from Western sanctions, dual security considerations encompassing power projection and defensive deterrence and aspirational positioning within an anticipated multipolar order. The analysis demonstrates that Iranian strategic narrative exhibits sophisticated cost–benefit calculations, acknowledging both opportunities and limitations of these partnerships. Recent events, particularly the 2023–2025 conflicts, have exposed critical vulnerabilities in Iran's strategic framework, raising questions about whether these partnerships can provide the strategic resilience Tehran anticipated.