The study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of time-series forecasting models in predicting educational performance trends among secondary schools in Nigeria. A replication study using a time-series forecasting model was conducted to assess the predictive accuracy of the original findings. The methodology included data collection from existing records and application of statistical software for analysis. The replicated model showed an R² value of 0. 85, indicating that 85% of the variance in physics education outcomes could be explained by the time-series forecasting model. The replication study confirms the predictive power of the original model and supports its application for risk reduction strategies in Nigerian secondary schools. Given the validated predictive accuracy, it is recommended that educators and policymakers use this model to forecast future educational trends and implement targeted interventions. Nigerian Secondary Schools, Physics Education, Time-Series Forecasting, Risk Reduction The empirical specification follows Y=₀+^ X+, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.
Musa et al. (Wed,) studied this question.