Quantifying Embodied Carbon in Post-Conflict Road Reconstruction: A Case Study from South Sudan (2021–2026)

{ "background": "Post-conflict reconstruction of transport infrastructure is a critical yet carbon-intensive endeavour. There is a significant knowledge gap regarding the embodied carbon of such projects in fragile states, where logistical constraints and material sourcing differ markedly from stable contexts. ", "purpose and objectives": "This case study aims to quantify the cradle-to-site embodied carbon of a major road reconstruction project. It seeks to identify the primary emission sources and evaluate the carbon implications of material supply chains in a challenging operational environment. ", "methodology": "A process-based hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) was applied, conforming to PAS. Primary activity data were collected from project bills of quantities, procurement records, and site logistics. A multivariate regression model, E = \0 + \1 X1 + \2 X₂ + \, was used to analyse the relationship between transport distance, material type, and carbon intensity. Uncertainty was addressed via a Monte Carlo simulation. ", "findings": "The total embodied carbon was estimated at 42, 800 tCO₂e (90% confidence interval: 39, 100–46, 500). Imported cement and its in-country transport accounted for over 60% of the total footprint, revealing a heavy dependence on distant suppliers. The regression analysis indicated that transport distance was a statistically significant predictor (p < 0. 01) of material-level emissions. ", "conclusion": "The embodied carbon of road reconstruction in this context is substantial and dominated by imported materials. Conventional LCA databases inadequately capture the emission factors of fragmented supply chains typical in post-conflict settings. ", "recommendations": "Project planners should prioritise local material sourcing where feasible and incorporate carbon accounting into procurement criteria. Future research should develop region-specific emission factors for construction materials. ", "key words": "Embodied carbon, Life cycle assessment, Road construction, Post-conflict reconstruction, Infrastructure sustainability, Hybrid LCA", "contribution statement": "This study provides the first quantitative assessment of