Navigating Post-Conflict Reconstruction: A Governance and Investment Framework for Egypt (2020–2026)

Post-conflict reconstruction presents distinct challenges and opportunities for business, particularly in African states where governance structures are often in flux. The case of Egypt, following a period of internal instability, offers a critical context to examine the intersection of institutional reform, investment risk, and private sector development. This working paper aims to develop an integrated governance and investment framework for post-conflict environments. It seeks to identify the primary institutional barriers to foreign direct investment and analyse the behavioural factors influencing managerial decision-making in such settings. The analysis employs a mixed-methods approach, combining a review of national policy documents and investment codes with structured interviews of senior executives from firms that have entered the market. A comparative institutional analysis informs the framework development. A central finding is that perceived regulatory unpredictability, more than physical security concerns, is the predominant deterrent for investors, cited by over 70% of interview respondents. The paper identifies a critical sequencing issue where infrastructure investments are prioritised over parallel judicial and regulatory reforms, creating a trust deficit. Successful economic reconstruction requires a concurrent, not sequential, approach to hard infrastructure and soft institutional governance. The investment climate is shaped more by the credibility of future policy pathways than by present conditions. Policymakers should establish an independent investment governance council with private sector representation to oversee regulatory coherence. Firms are advised to adopt embedded partnership models with local entities to mitigate institutional risks. post-conflict reconstruction, investment framework, governance, institutional reform, behavioural finance, risk perception, Africa This paper provides a novel diagnostic tool linking specific governance gaps to investor behavioural biases, offering a new mechanism for targeting policy interventions to enhance capital inflows in fragile states.