Forecasting effects of traditional cooking energy consumption on deforestation and carbon dioxide emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study examines the short-run and long-run effects of traditional biomass energy use, specifically firewood and charcoal consumption, on deforestation and CO 2 emissions, conditioned on GDP per capita, quadratic GDP per capita, population growth and foreign direct investment, in seven Sub-Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2023, using Vector Error Correction Model. The study further used control function approach to correct for potential simultaneity and endogeneity when estimating short-run dynamic relationships. Moreover, to ensure efficient and unbiased long-run estimates, the study used Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares estimator to address endogeneity and serial correlation, while the Augmented Mean Group estimator was used to account for heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and structural breaks. The cross-sectional dependency and panel unit root tests reveal that the series are integrated of order one; thus, panel cointegration analysis is appropriate. The results show that firewood and charcoal consumption are associated with deforestation and CO 2 emissions in the short- and long-run. While firewood is more associated with forest cover loss, charcoal is more associated with CO 2 emissions. Deforestation and CO 2 emissions are interlinked, with each contributing to further forest degradation and climate change. The relationship of deforestation with GDP per capita and quadratic GDP per capita is consistent with the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, with the turning point approximately to US3, 077. Population growth is associated with deforestation while foreign direct investment is positively associated with CO 2 emissions. For the period 2024-2028, on a 5-year basis, the projection under 95% confidence intervals uncertainty shows further increase in biomass use; hence deforestation and CO2 emissions will continue to rise unless drastic policy interventions are made. The results recommend an integrated approach to adoption of clean cooking energy and sustainable environmental management.