What question did this study set out to answer?

The study aims to assess the effectiveness of the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System in the Indus River Basin.

March 14, 2026Open Access

Evaluating the effectiveness of flood forecasting and early warning system in the diverse topographic region of Indus River Basin, Pakistan using the SWOT approach

NJNaveed JamalUniversity of Peshawar ARAtta RahmanNanjing University of Information Science and Technology

Key Points

The study aims to assess the effectiveness of the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System in the Indus River Basin.
Conducted focus group discussions with officials from relevant agencies.
Administered household surveys and expert interviews.
Utilized hydro-meteorological datasets from various organizations.
Applied SWOT analysis and GIS mapping for data assessment.
Identified significant progress in technology and collaboration for FF&EWS.
Noted weaknesses such as communication gaps and limited community involvement.
Highlighted opportunities like climate financing and regional cooperation.
Emphasized threats posed by climate variability and institutional fragmentation.

Abstract

This study focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FF&EWS) over the diverse topographic region of Indus River Basin (IRB), Pakistan using the SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) approach. In Indus River Basin (IRB), floods is the most recurrent and destructive natural hazards leading to significant loss of lives, widespread disruption of livelihoods and infrastructure. In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the operational capacity, institutional coordination, technological adequacy, and community-level response mechanisms that shape the performance of the FF&EWS. The study area includes flood-prone areas across the IRB with a particular focus on the vulnerable districts. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources, including focus group discussion with officials of the line agencies, household surveys, expert interviews, field observations, institutional reports and hydro-meteorological datasets provided by PMD, WAPDA, NDMA, PDMAs, and local administrations. The analysis involved descriptive statistics, thematic coding and SWOT-based categorization to assess forecasting accuracy, dissemination and institutional gaps. GIS-based mapping and cross-comparison of stakeholder responses further strengthened the analytical process. The analysis revealed that Pakistan FF&EWS has made significant progress through the installation of modern radar systems, satellite-based monitoring and improved institutional collaboration. However, FF&EWS weaknesses that include communication gap, limited community awareness, insufficient local-level infrastructure and inadequate integration of indigenous knowledge that hinder effectiveness. Opportunities that exists are international climate financing, mainstreaming science and technology in FF&EWS, regional cooperation and community based flood early warning. Similarly, climate variability, rapid glacial melt, socioeconomic disparities and political-institutional fragmentation pose threats to the sustainability of early warning system. The study highlighted the need of multi-layered, people-centered and technology-integrated approach to flood forecasting and early warning. Based on the results, there is a need to upgrade the hydro-meteorological networks, enhancing local-level dissemination channels, promoting inter-agency coordination and strengthening community education programs. Future research should focus on incorporating climate change projections, evaluating real-time data and developing district-level resilience models to ensure more effective preparedness and response in Pakistan.

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