GraphGPT-Patent: Time-Aware Graph Foundation Modeling on Semantic Similarity Document Graphs for Grant-Time Economic Impact Prediction

Predicting the future impact of technical economic documents at release time is challenging due to delayed supervision signals, long-tailed label distributions, and time- and domain-dependent shifts in language and topics. Moreover, similarity graphs derived from text embeddings can be noisy due to boilerplate and evolve under temporal drift, making robustness and leakage-free evaluation essential. We formulate grant-time patent impact prediction as a node classification and within-domain ranking problem on a large-scale semantic similarity document graph built from patent text embeddings, avoiding any future citation leakage. The document graph is constructed via ANN Top-K retrieval and similarity thresholding, enabling scalable and reproducible sparsification on hundreds of thousands of nodes. We propose GraphGPT-Patent, which adapts a reversible graph-to-sequence foundation backbone to local subgraphs extracted from the similarity network. The model incorporates time- and domain-conditioned edge reliability to suppress drift-induced and template-driven pseudo-similarity, and optimizes a joint objective coupling high-impact classification with ranking consistency within comparable groups. Experiments on USPTO granted patents (2000–2022) across three high-volume CPC domains and three evaluation horizons show consistent gains over text-only and GNN baselines, achieving up to 0.94 recall for the positive class and improved macro-average recall across nine settings. Temporal shift analyses further quantify the effect of training-data freshness, while explanation subgraphs provide auditable structural evidence of model decisions. The proposed framework offers an effective graph-based learning pipeline for scalable impact prediction and downstream triage under strict information constraints.