What does this research mean for the field?

A 1% decrease in tariffs increases agricultural export value by approximately 0.124% in Afghanistan following its accession to the WTO. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.NOVEL_FINDING. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

The research aims to assess how Afghanistan's WTO accession influences its agricultural export performance through trade liberalisation.

March 14, 2026

Trade Liberalisation and Agricultural Exports: Evidence From Afghanistan’s WTO Accessions

Key Points

The research aims to assess how Afghanistan's WTO accession influences its agricultural export performance through trade liberalisation.
Applied Difference-in-Differences (DIDs) methodology
Used Double-Selection LASSO Regression (DSLR), Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), and Kernel-Base Regularised Least Squares (KRLS)
Addressed endogeneity concerns with Trade Policy Uncertainty as an Instrumental Variable
Conducted heterogeneity and mediation analyses
A 1% decrease in tariffs leads to approximately a 0.124% increase in export value
Findings indicate effects are free from endogeneity bias
The impact of trade liberalisation varies across income levels and regions
Trade costs and resource allocation partially mediate the relationship between trade liberalisation and agricultural exports

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper examines the impact of Afghanistan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on its Agricultural Export Performance (), with a particular focus on the effects of Trade Liberalisation (). Using the Difference‐ in‐ Differences (DIDs) methodology, we found that has a positive and statistically significant effect on , suggesting that a 1% decrease in tariffs increases export value by approximately 0.124% in Afghanistan. This result is further validated by employing Double‐Selection LASSO Regression (DSLR), Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Kernel‐Based Regularised Least Squares (KRLS) machine learning techniques. Additionally, endogeneity concerns are addressed using Trade Policy Uncertainty () as an Instrumental Variable (IV), with results indicating that the estimated effects are free from endogeneity bias. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of on varies across different income levels, regions and neighbouring country classifications. Furthermore, a three‐step mediation analysis demonstrates that Trade Costs () and Resource Allocation () partially mediate the relationship between and . Based on these empirical outcomes, several policy recommendations are discussed.

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