Drivers of Tanzania’s seafood export performance: a gravity model analysis

Global seafood trade contributes significantly to economic development in low- and middle-income countries, yet participation remains uneven. Tanzania’s declining share of global seafood exports reflects broader structural constraints that limit sustainable integration into global markets. Using a gravity model and panel data from 2001 to 2021, this study examines how economic upgrading, demand similarity, and regulatory requirements influence Tanzania’s seafood exports. Results indicate that economic size, product upgrading, and similarity in per capita income between trading partners are associated with higher export volumes, whereas seafood standards, importer population size, and functional upgrading toward downstream value-chain activities are associated with lower trade flows. These findings suggest that alignment between productive capacity and demand compatibility supports exports, while regulatory compliance and coordination challenges constrain participation. Strengthening institutional capacity for standards compliance and targeting upgrading strategies to match with market characteristics are important for enhancing Tanzania’s participation and competitiveness in global seafood value chains.