The collapse of the Brumadinho dam (2019) affected 26 municipalities, restricting access to potable water, basic infrastructure, and healthcare services, thereby worsening social determinants related to infection transmission. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs), preventable and with greater impact on vulnerable populations, may have had their patterns altered in the Paraopeba Basin, also affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study analyzes time series of HIV, syphilis, and viral hepatitis (2014–2023) in the affected health regions, comparing them with data from Minas Gerais and Brazil. Prevalence study with time series analysis (2014–2023) of STIs in the health regions of the Paraopeba River Basin, Minas Gerais, and Brazil. Rates per 100,000 inhabitants and percentages were calculated from 2014 onward. The series were analyzed using segmented regression, estimating trend changes before and after the event. Between 2014 and 2023, SINAN recorded 3,098,549 STI cases (HIV/AIDS, syphilis, and viral hepatitis) in Brazil, 256,239 in Minas Gerais (8.3%), and 23,223 in the Paraopeba Basin health regions (9.1% of the state total). Of these, 67.5% occurred in the 26 municipalities directly impacted by the Brumadinho dam collapse. The proportional distribution between affected and unaffected areas remained stable in the pre- (2014–2018) and post-disaster (2019–2023) periods, with no statistically significant difference (χ² = 1.37; p = 0.24). Temporal analyses showed proportional growth of acquired syphilis and HIV in affected areas, though with lower absolute numbers. For HIV and hepatitis, trend inflections were observed after 2019, with deceleration or decline. Projections based on the pre-pandemic period indicated expected values higher than those observed between 2020–2022. Congenital syphilis maintained an upward trend but with deceleration; AIDS continued a sustained decline. The study describes trends in HIV, AIDS, syphilis, and viral hepatitis between 2014 and 2023 in the five regions encompassing the 26 municipalities directly impacted by the Brumadinho dam collapse, comparing them with Minas Gerais and Brazil. The series reveal distinct patterns by condition and territory, reflecting differences in access to care and surveillance strategies. No epidemiological changes directly or indirectly attributable to the dam collapse were observed in the evaluated municipalities.
Oliveira et al. (Sun,) studied this question.
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