The Scarcity of Stability: Introducing the Civilian Stability Index (CSI) and a Comparative Analysis of Civilian Security Across Civilizations

This paper introduces the Civilian Stability Index (CSI), a conceptual framework designed to estimate the proportion of historical time during which ordinary civilians experience sustained conditions of basic life security. Existing indicators of stability—such as conflict databases, economic growth measures, and political stability indices—primarily evaluate states and institutions rather than the lived conditions of civilians. Using comparative historical analysis across five major civilizations—China, Europe, Japan, India, and Iran/Persia—this study provides preliminary estimates of civilian stability across long historical periods. The findings suggest that civilians appear to have experienced stable life conditions for only approximately 8–12% of recorded history. The study identifies three recurring structural sources of stability: • hegemonic integration • institutional coordination • bottom-up social self-organization The paper further discusses how emerging artificial intelligence systems may affect historical stability mechanisms by transforming the economic role of human labor. Version: V1-5Author: G.M. SturmDate: March 2026