Spatiotemporal Evolution of Drought and Its Multi-Factor Driving Mechanisms in Xinjiang During 1981–2020

Drought is a highly destructive natural disaster that inflicts severe economic losses. Its formation mechanisms are complex, yet existing studies have often focused on single driving factors, leaving the synergistic effects of multiple factors insufficiently explored. Based on multi-source data from Xinjiang spanning 1981–2020, this study systematically examined the combined impacts of atmospheric circulation, underlying surface conditions, and human activities on drought, using the multi-temporal-scale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), along with partial correlation analysis, spatial autocorrelation, and principal component analysis. The results show that Xinjiang experienced a pronounced drying trend over the past 40 years, with the seasonal SPEI and SSI both exhibiting significant declines. Drought intensity was higher in northern Xinjiang than in the south. Correlations between drought indices and circulation indices, such as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), were relatively weak, indicating a limited regulatory influence of large-scale circulation on regional drought under the dual constraints of topography and an inland setting. Among underlying surface factors, slope significantly influenced drought spatial patterns. Mountainous areas and basin interiors showed positive spatial correlations, characterized respectively by high–high clustering (high slope and high drought index) and low–low clustering (low slope and low drought index). In contrast, basin margins exhibited low–high clustering (low slope surrounded by high drought index), reflecting negative spatial correlation. Aspect showed no significant effect. Vegetation cover displayed clear seasonal coupling with drought, with strong negative correlations in spring due to intensified water stress. Human activities also played a prominent role. Since the mid-1990s, the expansion of built-up land and increased agricultural water use have shifted drought–land use relationships toward low–high clustering (low drought index surrounded by high land-use intensity) in southern Xinjiang oases, and toward low–low clustering (low drought index and low land-use intensity) in eastern Xinjiang. Meanwhile, ecological restoration projects promoted a transition from low–high to high–high clustering (high drought index and high land-use intensity) in some areas, alleviating local drying trends. Principal component analysis further revealed a shift in the dominant driver: land-use change was the primary factor before 2005, whereas vegetation cover became the key driver thereafter. By clarifying the mechanisms underlying multi-factor interactions in drought in Xinjiang, this study provides scientific support for integrated water resource management, ecological conservation, and climate adaptation strategies in arid regions.