Cotton Boll Extraction and Boll Number Estimation from UAV RGB Imagery Before and After Defoliation

Accurate cotton boll identification and boll number estimation from UAV imagery are essential for large-scale yield prediction and precision management, yet severe leaf occlusion and complex canopy backgrounds often hinder robust performance. Here, UAV RGB images were acquired 3 days before defoliant application and at 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, and 18 days after defoliation. Cotton bolls were extracted using Mahalanobis distance, a support vector machine, and a neural network. Boll number was then estimated using an improved random forest model with multi-feature fusion. Across all defoliation stages, the NN produced the most accurate and stable boll extraction, achieving a maximum Kappa of 0.914, an overall accuracy of 95.77%, and an F1 score of 0.96. Extraction accuracy increased rapidly from 3 to 9 days after application and stabilized from 12 to 18 days. For boll number estimation, fusing the boll pixel ratio with color indices and texture features improved accuracy and consistency over time; the best performance was obtained at 18 days after application (R2 = 0.7264; rRMSE = 4.9%). Overall, imagery acquired 15–18 days after defoliation provided the most reliable estimation window, supporting operational pre-harvest assessment and harvest-timing decisions.