Analysis of the dynamics of land cover change and its impact on the variation of Earth's surface temperature using geographic information systems - Babylon Governorate as a model

Aims: This study aims to monitor and analyze spatiotemporal changes in land cover/land use during the period (1995–2025) based on Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 satellite imagery. The primary goal is to detect the impact of these changes on land cover indices and Land Surface Temperature (LST). The study also seeks to elucidate the relationship between various environmental variables—namely vegetation cover, water bodies, and urban expansion—and their respective roles in altering the local thermal balance. Methods: The study adopted a descriptive-analytical approach supported by remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques through the analysis of multi-temporal satellite imagery. A set of spectral environmental indices were extracted, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI). These indices were employed to determine the extent and direction of land use change and to analyze their correlational relationship with variations in land surface temperatures over the study period. Results: The findings revealed a marked increase in land surface temperatures from 46.4°C in 1995 to 59.9°C in 2025, indicating a clear disruption of the local thermal balance. This temperature rise is primarily attributed to rampant urban expansion and the intensification of urban heat island effects. Despite a recorded limited increase in vegetation cover of approximately 3.23 km² according to the NDVI, its cooling effect remained constrained due to the dominance of human activities and the expansion of impervious surfaces. The results also demonstrated a strong inverse relationship between NDVI and NDWI indices on one hand and land surface temperatures on the other, as the shrinkage of water bodies diminished the environment's thermal regulation capacity. Conversely, the NDBI index showed significant urban expansion from 122.26 km² to 150.51 km², which was accompanied by a temperature increase of approximately 13.5°C. This confirms that the pattern and density of urban expansion constitute a critical factor in disrupting the local thermal equilibrium. Conclusions: The study concludes that land use/land cover changes, particularly unplanned urban expansion, represent the primary driver of rising land surface temperatures and the degradation of thermal balance in the study area. The findings underscore that relying solely on vegetation and water indices without considering the spatial distribution patterns of urban built-up areas is insufficient for achieving environmental thermal stability. Accordingly, the study recommends the adoption of sustainable urban planning policies that integrate environmental indicators into urban development strategies, enhance vegetation and water bodies, and curb the sprawl of impervious surfaces to mitigate thermal impacts and achieve a better environmental balance.