Reducing GHG emissions and raw materials embodied in imports: assessing a cross-sectoral sufficiency-oriented national climate strategy in France

European climate policies largely target territorial emissions, overlooking greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and raw materials embodied in international trade. This study quantifies the potential and limitations of a sufficiency-oriented national strategy to reduce these impacts from a consumption-based perspective. Using the MatMat Environmentally Extended Input–Output (EEIO) model, we assess France’s transition pathways toward Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050 under two scenarios: an Efficiency-driven (Eff.) and a Sufficiency-oriented (Suff.) one. Results show that sufficiency systematically outperforms efficiency by reducing both GHG emissions (−44% vs. −31%) and raw material extraction (−24% vs −4%). Its outperformance stems from its stronger ability to reduce import dependency and to shift demand towards less material-intensive production. Housing, mobility, and food drive most reductions, while final services remain a persistent blind spot. In 2050, about two-thirds of France’s consumption-based impacts remain embodied in imports, 75% of which originate outside the EU, limiting the leverage of European decarbonization policies. These findings highlight the upstream mitigation potential of sufficiency and the need to extend NZE strategies beyond territorial scopes. Two key implications emerge. First, extending sufficiency to service provision is crucial to limit rebound effects and address the growing role of services in ageing societies. Second, integrating sufficiency into coordinated EU-level trade, industrial, and resource policies is essential to tackle imported pressures and strengthen the resilience of low-carbon transitions.