This working paper introduces the concept of systemic warfare to explain how contemporary conflict increasingly operates through cumulative pressure across interconnected operational systems and networked information environments. The article develops a theoretical framework that integrates two core dimensions of modern conflict: Operational System Warfare (OSW), which targets critical infrastructure nodes within interconnected systems, and information competition, which shapes the interpretation, amplification, and strategic impact of operational events. To formalize these dynamics, the paper proposes two analytical constructs: the Operational Node Criticality Score (ONCS), which captures the structural importance of nodes within operational networks, and the Systemic Pressure Index (SPI), which models the nonlinear accumulation of system-level stress across interdependent infrastructures. Drawing on an analytical illustration based on the initial phase of the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran confrontation, the paper demonstrates how localized disruptions can propagate through interconnected systems and be amplified through information environments, generating cumulative strategic effects over time. The paper contributes to the study of contemporary conflict by (1) reconceptualizing military effectiveness as system resilience under persistent disruption, (2) introducing a tractable modeling framework for analyzing cumulative pressure in networked conflict, and (3) integrating operational and informational dynamics into a unified approach to multi-domain warfare. The framework is intended as a theoretically grounded modeling approach that generates testable implications for future empirical research.
Shaoyuan Wu (Tue,) studied this question.