Seismic Performance and Fragility Assessment of a Prefabricated Shear Wall System with Keyway Interlocking and Concentrated Reinforcement Connections

Prefabricated reinforced concrete shear wall structures have attracted significant attention due to their advantages in industrialized construction and sustainability. However, the structural performance of prefabricated shear wall systems still requires further investigation to ensure reliable seismic behavior under earthquake loading. In this study, a fully prefabricated shear wall system incorporating keyway interlocking joints and concentrated reinforcement connections is proposed, and its nonlinear seismic behavior is systematically investigated through finite element modeling, parametric analysis, nonlinear time history analysis, and incremental dynamic analysis. The finite element models were validated against available experimental results and reproduced the hysteretic response, stiffness degradation, and load-carrying capacity with good agreement. The relative errors in peak load were within 5%, indicating the reliability of the adopted modeling approach. Parametric analyses indicate that axial compression ratio, concrete strength, and wall thickness significantly affect structural performance, while prefabricated walls exhibit slightly lower stiffness and strength than cast-in-place walls, with mean reduction factors of 0.88 and 0.91. An eight-story prefabricated shear wall building subjected to multiple scaled ground motions exhibits stable flexure-dominated deformation without joint sliding or soft-story mechanisms. Peak roof displacements reached 19.71 mm and 32.85 mm in the X and Y directions, with maximum interstory drift ratios of 1/892 and 1/724. These values are significantly smaller than the commonly adopted collapse drift limit of 1/120 specified in seismic design guidelines, indicating a relatively large deformation safety margin under the ground motions considered. Probabilistic seismic demand models were established based on both PGA and Sa(T1, 5%) intensity measures, showing strong correlations with the maximum interstory drift ratio. Fragility analysis demonstrates a high probability of remaining in intact or slight damage states under frequent and design-level earthquakes and a low collapse probability under rare earthquakes. These findings provide valuable insights for the design of next-generation prefabricated shear wall systems with mechanical interlocking joints and concentrated reinforcement connections.