Geopolitical conflicts and global energy system volatility in the 21st century

In the 21st century, geopolitical conflicts often change the energy market within hours, especially when they threaten major oil-producing or gas-producing regions or involve places through which a large part of the world’s energy supply must pass. The recent military escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has raised fears about the security of the Persian Gulf energy system and pushed oil prices sharply upward. This paper examines whether due to the economics of the recent oil conflict, Russia is likely to make more money from oil exports. It argues that higher global oil prices can give Russia short-term financial gains even under sanctions, because the world benchmark price still shapes the value of Russian oil. At the same time, sanctions, transport limits, infrastructure risks, and wider changes in the global energy system continue to restrict Russia’s longer-term position. The paper also considers how shadow shipping, currency stress, and the use of unsold fuel for cryptocurrency mining fit into this changing economic and geopolitical landscape. More broadly, it shows that global oil shocks do not remain in the realm of trade and diplomacy. They move into household budgets, public trust, and daily life. In that sense, oil conflicts are not only about barrels, tankers, and pipelines but also about inflation, social tension, and the way consumers worldwide experience uncertainty.