The transport of dangerous goods (TDG) produces serious risks, particularly in urban areas, due to the high presence of people and sensitive infrastructures from a social, environmental and economic point of view. Transport Risk Assessment combines occurrence, vulnerability and exposure to support urban transport planning aimed at achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. The objective of this paper is to propose a simplified risk calculation method, referring to a single link of the urban transport network, with reference to the occurrence component of the risk. The proposed formulation considers the sequence of factors that determine the overall dangerous event. The specification of the occurrence factors and a quantitative definition of the different parameters for a widespread type of transport of dangerous goods in urban areas is proposed. The results obtained are interesting because (1) the method, with quantitative parameters, can be applied to any urban area, and (2) some of the factors can also be used by replacing and introducing, where known, specific factors and relative parameters calibrated for the area for which it is planned to be implemented. The results indicate the feasibility of the proposed method without significant chemical–physical or electromechanical insights. This work is of potential interest for urban transport planners and public and private decision makers.
Russo et al. (Tue,) studied this question.