What does this research mean for the field?

Between 2020 and 2026, the United States leads China in autonomous weapons systems investment and AI patent quality, while China dominates in AI patent volume, and Turkey controls the majority of the global drone export market. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.NOVEL_FINDING. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.ESTABLISHES_NEW_DIRECTION.

What question did this study set out to answer?

This research aims to compare the development trajectories of autonomous weapons systems in the U.S. and China from 2020 to 2026.

March 24, 2026Open Access

Autonomous Weapons Systems in Great Power Competition: A Comparative Analysis of United States and China Development Trajectories, 2020-2026

Key Points

This research aims to compare the development trajectories of autonomous weapons systems in the U.S. and China from 2020 to 2026.
Conducted mixed-methods analysis combining quantitative and qualitative data.
Analyzed defense expenditure data from SIPRI and U.S. Department of Defense.
Performed bibliometric analysis of patents from the World Intellectual Property Organization.
Employed qualitative content analysis of strategic policy documents.
U.S. defense investment was significantly higher than China's, with a spending ratio of 3.18:1.
China led in AI patent volume, but the U.S. showed stronger citation impact.
Turkey dominated the global drone export market with 65%, while U.S. market share was only 8%.
A governance gap was revealed with 28 autonomous weapons systems identified across various countries.

Abstract

The accelerating development of autonomous weapons systems (AWS) represents a defining feature of great power competition between the United States and the People's Republic of China, yet no comprehensive empirical comparison of their development trajectories exists. This mixed-methods dissertation comparatively analyzes U. S. and Chinese AWS development from 2020 to 2026, examining defense investment patterns, innovation trajectories, and proliferation dynamics. The study integrates quantitative trend analysis of defense expenditure data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and the Department of Defense Comptroller, patent bibliometric analysis of World Intellectual Property Organization records, and qualitative content analysis of strategic policy documents, following a convergent parallel mixed-methods design. Regarding defense investment (RQ1), the United States outspent China 3. 18: 1 (997 billion versus 314 billion cumulative), with U. S. compound annual growth rates of 6. 40% exceeding China’s 5. 65%. Regarding innovation trajectories (RQ2), China led in artificial intelligence patent volume by a factor of 4. 42, while the United States maintained superior citation impact, revealing a patent quantity–quality paradox; the U. S. fiscal year 2026 autonomy budget reached 13. 4 billion. Regarding proliferation and governance (RQ3), Turkey captured 65% of global drone export market share, followed by China at 26% and the United States at 8%; drone transfers to Africa increased 6. 5-fold; and 28 autonomous weapons systems were cataloged across multiple nations, revealing a significant governance gap. The study contributes three theoretical concepts: the “hyper-security dilemma, ” capturing AI-enabled amplification of security dilemma dynamics; a “technology competition” framework reframing the rivalry beyond conventional arms race models; and the “patent quantity–quality paradox. ” Policy implications include recommendations for “responsible acceleration, ” the Replicator Initiative, multi-track governance, and reform of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons framework.

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