Complete Green Economy Model (GEM)

A series of system dynamics models have been developed to analyse the impacts of bio-based circular systems in key sectors like construction, plastics, chemicals, and textiles. These models assess environmental, social, and economic dimensions, capturing the complex relationships between factors such as material demand, consumption patterns, and life cycle impacts. Starting with drivers such as population dynamics, the models trace a material's journey through manufacturing, use, resale or reuse, recycling, and disposal, highlighting the role of energy consumption and the importance of resource efficiency. The models also focus on product management strategies, particularly the cascading use of bio-based materials, to promote sustainable resource utilisation. Each model is tailored to a specific region—Italy for textiles, the Netherlands for chemicals, and Germany for construction and plastics—allowing for detailed analysis and targeted policy development. In essence, these models serve as platforms for scenario simulations, exploring policy interventions that align with EU and regional sustainability goals. This report presents model inputs for the simulation of three scenarios namely, Business as Usual (BAU), BioTransition, and BioRevolution, and offers full model documentation. Across all industries, policies are categorized into demand-side initiatives, materials and energy efficiency improvements, material-switching strategies, and enhanced recycling efforts. In the construction industry, emphasis is placed on increasing building renovation rates, improving material efficiency, substituting cement with wood-based materials, and maximizing waste recycling to transform the sector into a carbon sink. The plastics industry focuses on reducing single-use plastics, boosting material efficiency, adopting bio-waste feedstocks, and significantly increasing recycling rates to lead the shift toward circularity. The textile sector targets extended product lifetime, improved energy efficiency, greater incorporation of bio-based materials, and robust waste collection and recycling systems to minimize environmental impact. Lastly, the chemicals industry aims to enhance both material and energy efficiency, increase the use of biobased inputs, and improve waste management practices to achieve zero pollution and align with EU sustainability targets. Each scenario from BAU to BioRevolution represents a scaling up in the ambition of the intervention options, reflecting increasing levels of commitment towards achieving a sustainable and circular bio-based economy.