The Use of Generative AI in Foresight: A Model Comparison for Scenario Development

Technology foresight is becoming increasingly more known in public and private sectors. Despite the interest in this relatively new field, it struggles to be applied in real context. One common method in foresight is the use of scenarios and scenario development. To simplify this method and make it easier for anyone to approach it, a new way of following the process was created and tested. With the help of the AI tools, it was possible to speed up the entire process. An explorative experiment was conducted in a classroom setting of a Master course by the Bavarian Foresight Institute, which is a leading institution in the application and education in strategic and technology foresight. The purpose of the experiment was to test and evaluate a scenario process supported by three different AI tools, enabling a qualitative comparison of their usefulness for foresight practice. Eighteen students were divided into six teams working in parallel on the same case study. The aim was to assess, drawing on their foresight expertise, the extent to which AI tools can serve as effective support instruments in developing foresight applications.