Demographic Modeling in the Kemerovo Region: A Cohort-Component Analysis of Population Dynamics

Several Russian regions face critical demographic challenges, including depopulation, an aging population, and youth out-migration, which collectively constrain local socio-economic development. Given its severe population decline, the Kemerovo Region requires urgent demographic forecasting. This article presents scenario-based population projections for the region using the cohort-component method, supplemented by statistical analysis, systemic modeling, and extrapolation. This methodology was adapted to the specific demographic and socio-economic conditions of Western Siberia. The key indicators included mortality and birth rates at the municipal level, internal and external migration, labor mobility, and urbanization trends. The resulting integrated approach combines the cohort-component analysis with an assessment of the economic, environmental, and institutional factors influencing the regional demographic dynamics. The study provides four demographic forecast scenarios for the Kemerovo Region through 2036: inertial, inertial (optimistic), moderate, and target. For each scenario, the authors identified the key parameters driving population trajectories based on critical demographic shifts.