Underload or Overload? Unveiling the Contradiction Between the Distribution of Urban Green Spaces and Their Carrying Capacity During Summer Heat Periods

Rapid urbanization has intensified the mismatch between urban green space (UGS) and urban spatial vitality (USV), hindering sustainable development. To address this, we developed the Urban Green Space Vitality Adaptation Model (UGSVAM) and analyzed 64 subdistricts in central Nanjing. Specifically, this study asks: Does the mismatch exist? What are its spatiotemporal patterns? What factors drive it? Methodologically, we use the Gini coefficient and Lorenz curve to assess overall UGS-USV adaptation, then construct the Urban Green Space Vitality Density (UGVD) indicator to quantify the match level, classifying units as overloaded, underloaded, or balanced. OLS and GWR reveal global and local influencing mechanisms, while quadrant analysis supports differentiated planning. Results show: (1) UGS-USV adaptation in Nanjing is weak, with Gini coefficients of 0.466 (weekday) and 0.456 (weekend). UGVD exhibits a spatial pattern of a primary overload core in the central city, a secondary core in the southwest, and peripheral decline, with the southeast underloaded. Overloaded units also show notable temporal variation. (2) Globally POI density and intersection density promote UGVD, while excessive transport facilities, air pollution, and high temperatures inhibit it—ecological factors have stronger weekend effects. (3) Locally, the northeast is more sensitive to POI density, the southwest to transport and heat, and the Jiangbei New Area could enhance green space carrying capacity through transport optimization and spatial integration. The UGSVAM integrates spatial diagnosis, mechanism analysis, and planning response, offering a transferable framework for refining green space governance in high-density cities.