What question did this study set out to answer?

This analysis aims to evaluate and identify vulnerabilities within the Chinese naval and space capabilities.

March 27, 2026Open Access

Strategic Degradation of People's Republic of China Naval and Space-Based Offensive Capabilities: A Net Assessment and Systems Analysis Approach

Key Points

This analysis aims to evaluate and identify vulnerabilities within the Chinese naval and space capabilities.
Employs a dual-framework methodology combining net assessment and systems analysis.
Utilizes open-source intelligence data from six authoritative databases.
Conducts a vulnerability assessment focusing on key satellite systems and ground stations.
Identifies the Yaogan-Beidou-Tianlian satellite triad as critical for Chinese A2/AD operations.
Ranks satellite ground stations as the highest-priority targets due to their operational importance.
Finds that space-focused degradation can produce significant effects across multiple naval capabilities.

Abstract

The People's Republic of China (PRC) has conducted the most significant peacetime naval buildup since the Tirpitz era, expanding the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to over 370 battle force ships with a sustained compound annual growth rate of 2. 37%, supported by a defense budget of 317. 6 billion (2024) and a shipbuilding capacity advantage estimated at 230: 1 over the United States. Simultaneously, the PRC has constructed a military space architecture comprising 391 military and dual-use satellites that forms the backbone of an integrated anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) system threatening U. S. power projection across the Indo-Pacific theater. This dissertation employs a dual-framework methodology integrating Andrew Marshall's net assessment tradition with RAND Corporation systems analysis to systematically identify critical vulnerabilities within the PRC's naval-space offensive architecture using open-source intelligence data from six authoritative databases. The analysis reveals that the Yaogan-Beidou-Tianlian satellite triad constitutes the center of gravity for PRC A2/AD operations, with four of six anti-ship ballistic missile kill chain phases critically dependent on space-based assets. Vulnerability assessment identifies satellite ground stations (telemetry, tracking, and command facilities) as the highest-priority target set (priority score: 50. 0), due to their fixed nature, operational criticality, and limited redundancy. The study develops a phased strategic degradation framework spanning 1 to 5 years across the competition-crisis-conflict continuum, identifying cost-imposing opportunities with favorable exchange ratios including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance gap exploitation (7: 1) and information operations (8: 1). Findings indicate that space-focused degradation strategies produce compounding effects across multiple naval capabilities, offering high-leverage options for U. S. strategic planners. This research contributes to military science by providing the first integrated net assessment and systems analysis of PRC naval-space vulnerabilities and a theoretically grounded, operationally actionable degradation framework for senior defense leadership.

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