CLEO: Universal Causal–Entropic Closure from Infrared Cosmic Dynamics to Emergent Local Structure.

A central open problem in fundamental physics is the absence of a single dynamical principle connecting cosmic acceleration, emergent geometry, matter–geometry closure, and local gauge structure. The standard cosmological model successfully fits a broad range of observations, yet it treats late-time acceleration as a phenomenological background component and leaves its deeper origin structurally unexplained. In parallel, approaches to unification and quantum gravity often remain detached from directly testable cosmological observables. This work proposes that these problems are not independent. Instead, they can be understood as different effective sectors of a single causal–entropic organization principle. The CLEO-ToE framework is built on the hypothesis that the physically relevant infrared dynamics of the Universe is governed by a universal coarse-grained variable u ≡−dlnH2 dN , where N = lna. In this picture, late-time acceleration is not interpreted as the effect of a fundamental static vacuum term, but as the infrared manifestation of an irreversible relaxation process in a finite-capacity causal system. At the phenomenological level, this structure leads to a nonlinear entropic evolution law whose lowest-order universal form is factorized and admits fixed points associated with matter-like and asymptotically de Sitter regimes. At the structural level, the same framework implies a universal causal–entropic closure theorem: if a physical system satisfies finite causal capacity, open reset-governed dynamics, bounded collective entropic flow, activation, saturation, local redundancy, and spectral stability, then its infrared organization must fall into the CLEO universality class. Within this class, geometry is emergent, higher-order expansion dynamics is nontrivial, and local internal structure arises as an extension of the same underlying substrate. The empirical anchor of the theory is provided by the infrared cosmological sector. Using a reconstruction based on Cosmic Chronometers, BAO data, and Pantheon+ supernovae with full covariance, the present analysis tests the null hypothesis associated with the standard kinematic prediction j(z) = 1. The reconstructed jerk profile exhibits statistically significant deviations from this constant-j expectation. In the regularized physical solution adopted as reference, the global jerk statistic reaches Tj ≃ 86.7, with no event as extreme in 2 × 105 Monte Carlo null realizations, implying a conservative lower bound of ≳ 4.5σ and individual redshift-bin tensions above 7σ. This establishes that the infrared layer of the theory is not merely formal: the constant-jerk background of ΛCDM is strongly disfavored by the data in the observable sector most directly connected to the CLEO law. Beyond the infrared sector, the framework also provides a structural route from emergent geometry to local organization. In this view, matter–geometry closure, gauge redundancy, condensate formation, localized excitations, irreversible asymmetry generation, and effective constants are not independent fundamental ingredients, but distinct manifestations of a single reset-governed causalentropic substrate. The present work does not claim a complete ultraviolet completion. Rather, it establishes a theorem-level structural closure in the infrared and mesoscopic regimes, supported by direct cosmological evidence, and shows how the local sector can be consistently embedded as a constrained extension of that same principle. The central claim of this article is therefore twofold. First, the observed expansion history supports a universal entropic infrared dynamics that is incompatible with a purely constant-jerk description. Second, this infrared law can be elevated into a broader unifying framework in which geometry, gauge structure, matter organization, and effective constants arise as sectors of a common causal–entropic mechanism. In this sense, CLEO-ToE is proposed not as a finished ultraviolet theory, but as a falsifiable, observationally anchored, structurally unified pathway toward a causal–entropic theory of everything.