Distribution Characteristics and Hazard Assessment of Ground Collapse in the Mining Activity Areas of the Turpan–Hami Basin

The Turpan–Hami Basin, a critical energy hub in northwestern China, is plagued by frequent ground collapses induced by extensive mining over karst geology, threatening ecology and safety. Current hazard assessment methods, mainly single linear or traditional machine learning models, fail to capture the complex nonlinear interactions inherent to this coupled geo-mining environment. This study addresses this gap by establishing a multi-dimensional “Geology-Mining-Hydrology-Environment” index system comprising 14 critical factors—including lithology, goaf distribution, mining intensity, and their interaction terms. A coupled gradient boosting decision tree and logistic regression (GBDT-LR) model, optimized for the multi-factor coupling characteristics of ground collapse in arid mining basins, was applied for the hazard assessment. The results reveal a distinct spatial pattern of “core agglomeration with multi-level gradient differentiation.” Extremely high-hazard areas, covering 9.21% of the area, are concentrated in the core mining areas northwest of Turpan and southwest of Hami, while high-hazard areas (4.63%) form surrounding belts. The GBDT-LR model (AUC = 0.871) demonstrated significantly superior performance over a single logistic regression model (AUC = 0.813), proving its enhanced capability to identify high-hazard areas by modeling complex factor interactions. This work provides an essential scientific foundation for implementing zonal hazard management and prioritizing disaster prevention projects in key areas of the basin.