New Energy Geopolitics: The Role and Interests of Uzbekistan

This article offers an in-depth, policy-oriented academic analysis of the transformation of Central Asia’s energy geopolitics in 2016–2030, focusing on Uzbekistan as the region’s largest domestic market and a pivotal node of cross-border grids. The study argues that regional energy geopolitics is shifting from a resource- and transit-competition logic to a resilience-competition logic, in which institutional robustness, grid sovereignty, seasonal balancing capacity, and energy diplomacy become decisive. By comparing energy mixes, investment patterns, and governance reforms, the paper shows how President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s reforms reshape Uzbekistan’s energy security and expand its foreign-policy maneuvering space. The paper further analyzes key risks (climate, infrastructure, market, and political) and highlights the role of evidence-based policy support, including the Energy Diplomacy and Geopolitics Center at the Institute for Advanced International Studies (UWED).