Extensive floods in south-western Poland: Synoptic drivers, upper air environment and associated impacts

The main research aim was to determine changes in synoptic conditions during rainfall incidents that led to catastrophic flood events in southeastern Poland in 1997, 2010 and 2024. The basis of the synoptic analysis was calculated from ERA5 (ECMWF – European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis containing information on such variables as atmospheric pressure, geopotential, moisture content or direction and speed of air flow in the lower troposphere. The study also includes information on hydrological conditions on the rivers covered by the gauge stations (IMGW-PIB), specifying the height of the exceedance of the alarm condition and the number of days. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the spatial distribution and accumulation of precipitation caused by the migration of the low-pressure system from over the Gulf of Genoa was significantly influenced by the blocking high. The presence of a jet stream and atmospheric fronts associated with forming shallow lows within the main low baric center was also a supporting factor. In addition, the elevated sum of accumulated precipitation associated with the 2024 rainfall incident again signals a problem related to the rapid warming of the Mediterranean Sea, affecting the overall sum and distribution of precipitation in Europe.