The Developments of Japan’s Climate Policy Since the Paris Agreement: The Progress in a Quest for a Net Zero Target

This paper examines the most recent improvements in climate change policies in Japan, taking into account its challenges, such as fossil fuels (including coal) in the energy mix and Japan’s reliance on energy imports. The study focuses on the developments since the 5th edition of the Basic Energy Plan adopted in July 2018 by the METI, marking a crucial and decisive step back into the international stage of climate change politics, shaping Japan’s post-Paris ambitions. Japan is among 72 countries that pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 at the latest. However, the current implementation plan is inadequate for reaching it, as fossil fuels dominate the total energy mix. Japan experienced a recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic and initiated some recovery packages which also included climate-related projects as the means to revitalise the country’s economy. However, the amount of funds and loans was small compared to the EU and some other developed countries. The Green Transformation Basic Policy, introduced in February 2023, creates a scheme to boost the renewable energy sector, relaunch nuclear power, and launch the emissions trading scheme and carbon levy by the late 2020s, giving hope for smoother decarbonisation. The policy keeps on focusing on economic growth, innovations, and technologies, most notably CCS. However, the coal industry also finds its place in the policy through co-firing. In addition, Japan still builds new coal power plants and continues funding coal through development banks and export credit agencies, making climate finance. This study found that the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, did not have prominent effects on the energy sector in Japan even though it remains unclear whether the imports of Cobalt and Nickel, used in batteries and windmills, have been affected. Even though Japan’s climate policy is constantly improving, the current level of ambition as reflected in its NDC is not sufficient to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, significant gaps exist between current policies, pledges, and net zero targets. Overall, despite a net zero pledge and improvements, the current policies do not prevent the warming from exceeding the 1.5°C and even 2°C threshold. This is characteristic of many developed countries. Meanwhile, despite the systemic challenges embedded in the climate policies, a growing number of businesses and members of civil society actively get involved in helping with the decarbonisation of industry or society, as shown by the example of the Japan Climate Initiative whose membership continues to grow. As it is clear that the current implementation path of Japan is inadequate to address climate change, it remains important to signal the need for changes in transforming the energy system and constantly track the improvements in curbing GHG emissions.