The U.S. economy has performed well in 2025, quickly adapting to a significant shift in policies with growth reaching 2 percent (on a Q4/Q4 basis) even though the government shutdown took a bite out of activity in the fourth quarter. Strong, broad-based productivity growth over the past few years has set the U.S. economy apart from its peers. Growth is expected to accelerate modestly in 2026, supported by expansionary fiscal policy, a waning drag from tariffs, and the impact of policy rate cuts in 2025. As the passthrough of tariffs to consumer prices wanes, core PCE inflation is expected to fall to 2 percent by 2027H1, but headline PCE could be somewhat higher, impacted by world oil prices. Risks around the near-term outlook for activity and unemployment are balanced while risks to inflation are to the upside. The external position in 2025 was moderately weaker than implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.
Building similarity graph...
Analyzing shared references across papers
Loading...
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
IMF country report
Building similarity graph...
Analyzing shared references across papers
Loading...
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. (Wed,) studied this question.
www.synapsesocial.com/papers/69cf5d1f5a333a821460ac7f — DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229042826.002