Projected Impact of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz Closure on Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Profitability in North Dakota

In early March 2026, Iranian retaliation against U. S. -led military operations halted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, driving urea spot prices up 28. 2% and farm diesel prices up 34. 7% within three weeks. This brief assesses the profitability impact of this dual fertilizer and fuel shock on North Dakota corn, soybean, and wheat producers using updated 2026 NDSU Projected Crop Budgets and a March 2026 producer survey. The shock arrived when corn and wheat margins were already negative at −27. 60/acre and −33. 41/acre, respectively, a substantially weaker starting position than at the onset of the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict. Under full exposure, the combined shock adds 31. 70/acre for corn, 21. 18/acre for wheat, and 5. 12/acre for soybeans, with current commodity price responses insufficient to offset these increases on any crop. Corn bears the largest burden through the nitrogen channel; soybeans, though largely insulated from fertilizer costs, face margin erosion through diesel. A producer survey finds that pre-purchase timing partially buffers fertilizer exposure for many operations, but fuel costs remain fully exposed regardless, and more than half of respondents reported outstanding spring fertilizer purchases. Unlike 2022–2023, when commodity prices eventually exceeded rising input costs, the 2026 Hormuz shock combines a weaker margin baseline with a commodity price response that has so far fallen well short of restoring profitability.