The arid and semiarid pastoral and agropastoral systems across sub-Saharan Africa face increasing pressure from climate change, land degradation, and changing land use, endangering food security, livestock productivity, and ecosystem health. However, specific evidence on how these combined pressures interact locally is still limited. This study addresses this gap with a long-term case study of Tiaty, Baringo County, Kenya, where pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods are increasingly influenced by climate variability and land-use changes. Landscape dynamics from 1994 to 2024 were examined using Landsat imagery, CHIRPS and CRU TS climate records, agroecological data, and socioeconomic surveys. Land-use/land-cover changes were mapped using random forest classification and change detection in Google Earth Engine. Results revealed a marked shift from dense shrublands to sparse shrublands, grasslands, and croplands. Rainfall during the March–May season declined while heatwave frequency increased, altering farming and grazing practices. Goats and camels showed greater resilience than cattle, while settlements shifted farther from croplands, reflecting expanding rangeland. This studydepended on gridded climate datasets that may obscure microclimatic differences. The study also employed limited temporal observations that could hinder causal inference, and used spectral similarity among transitional land-use classes in medium-resolution imagery which may have introduced uncertainty in area estimates. The observed relationships therefore, should be seen as indicators of system responses rather than definitive causal effects. These findings underscore the need for targeted adaptation strategies, including drought-tolerant crops, climate-resilient livestock breeds, and sustainable rangeland management, supported by policies strengthening market access, irrigation infrastructure, and community capacity.
Kipterer et al. (Sun,) studied this question.