By definition, financially optimized harvesting decisions generate higher returns than those that are suboptimal—but how much higher? In this study, we compared the financial performance of fully optimized, precision silviculture to conventional silvicultural strategies based on simple rules. We used a simulation-optimization approach to model the tree-by-tree harvesting schedules that maximize financial returns for a case study northern hardwood stand in the Adirondack region of New York, USA. We compared the optimized results with those that would be obtained from three simpler, heuristic silvicultural strategies: even-aged management, balanced group selection, and irregular group selection. In these comparison scenarios, we modeled a conventional ‘B-line’ thinning schedule across all plots and only optimized on the timing and arrangement of plot-level end-of-rotation regeneration harvests, subject to strategy-specific constraints. Among the heuristic approaches, irregular group selection increased returns by 6% over balanced group selection and 10% over even-aged management. Precision silviculture exceeded the returns from irregular group selection by 13% and even-aged management by more than 25%. Compared to the simpler strategies, precision silviculture also produced notably larger trees over longer rotations from more structurally complex stands.
Maker et al. (2026) studied this question.