Between Structural Ambition and Inferential Fragility: An Evaluative Analysis of a Shadow Report on Drug Policy

This essay presents a critical evaluation of the report The UNGASS Decade in Review (IDPC, 2026), focusing on the relationship between structural ambition and empirical support in civil society advocacy within global drug policy. Using OECD-DAC evaluation criteria, UNEG standards, and realist evaluation approaches, the analysis examines the coherence between acknowledged methodological limitations and the strength of the conclusions presented. The essay identifies a tension between explicitly recognized evidence gaps and the formulation of systemic claims, conceptualized as inferential fragility. It contributes to debates on epistemic responsibility, methodological rigor, and the legitimacy of knowledge production in multilateral policy processes.