Spatial analysis of environmental drivers for sustainable development in the western Nile delta coast, Egypt

Sustainable environmental management requires integrated approaches that combine spatial analysis with field and laboratory assessments. This study integrates field investigations, laboratory analyses, remotely sensed data, and geographic information systems (GIS) to conduct a comprehensive environmental assessment of the western coastal Nile Delta, Egypt. Three multispectral Landsat scenes from 2003, 2013, and 2023 were processed to derive key environmental and climatic indicators, including land use/land cover (LULC), land surface temperature (LST), urban heat islands (UHI), and shoreline dynamics. Water and soil samples were analyzed for physical and chemical properties, with particular focus on heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Fe) and associated pollution indices. Between 2003 and 2023, vegetation expanded by 1,140.19 km2, largely at the expense of barren lands (− 1,212.41 km2). The most pronounced shoreline changes occurred during 2003–2013, with erosion and accretion rates of 1.0209 km2 and 0.8104 km2, respectively. Water quality in the River Nile showed no consistent spatial pattern, though elevated contaminant levels were detected near Kafr El-Zayat, while most canals were classified as good to permissible for irrigation. Soil analyses revealed wide fluctuations in heavy metal concentrations: Fe (3,287.57–42,577.24 ppm), Cd (0.45–4.05 ppm), and Pb (10.17–99.63 ppm). Contamination factor values indicated low Fe contamination but variable Cd levels, ranging from low to very high in the northeastern districts. The geoaccumulation index (Igeo) suggested anthropogenic contributions to Cd pollution, particularly in Abou Homous and Damanhour. Overall, the findings reveal significant land cover transformation, shoreline instability, and spatially clustered pollution linked to intensified anthropogenic activities. This study advances environmental driver analysis by developing an integrated geospatial framework that connects land use dynamics, coastal change, and atmospheric pollution within a sustainability-oriented assessment. The results provide a science-based decision-support tool to guide targeted monitoring and sustainable environmental management in Beheira Governorate and similar regions.