What question did this study set out to answer?

To explore Claudia Sahm's contributions to macro forecasting and fiscal policy during her tenure at the Federal Reserve.

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April 7, 2026

Lessons Learned: Claudia Sahm

Key Points

To explore Claudia Sahm's contributions to macro forecasting and fiscal policy during her tenure at the Federal Reserve.
Conducted an interview with Claudia Sahm in December 2020.
Reviewed her work on macro forecasting and household behavior at the Federal Reserve.
Analyzed her proposals, including the Sahm Rule for recession detection.
Sahm proposed the Sahm Rule, which uses the unemployment rate to indicate the start of a recession.
Her work emphasizes the effectiveness of automatic stabilizers in improving fiscal policy responses.
Sahm advised Congress on fiscal policy after leaving the Fed in 2019.

Abstract

Claudia Sahm was a principal economist in the Division of Research and Statistics of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2007 to 2017 and section chief for the Consumer she also researched household behavior and responses to fiscal stimulus. While at the Fed, she proposed the Sahm Rule, a gauge to call the start of a recession, based on an average of the unemployment rate. The rule is part of Sahm’s work on the use of automatic stabilizers to improve fiscal policy response in times of economic crisis. In 2019, Sahm left the Fed and advised Congress on fiscal policy. In 2021, she became a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute, where she now serves as director of macroeconomic research. This Lessons Learned is based on an interview with Sahm that occurred in December 2020.

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