The world is becoming quite unsafe in terms of global geopolitical conflicts which are jeopardizing the international energy security and economic stability. India being the third largest consumer of oil in the world is a very reliant country on the imported fossil fuels. The economy is exposed to external shocks as about 88-89 percent of its crude oil demand is met by imports. This paper assesses the vulnerability of India based on geopolitical risk analysis, energy demand modeling, and economic simulation. It suggests a multi-layered approach consisting of renewable expansion, advantages from EVs and strategic reserves. The conclusions imply that through a set of concerted policy efforts, India can become less vulnerable to energy by 40-60% by 2040. The research has a contribution to the policy discussion by combining economic models with geopolitics frameworks, which offers a blueprint of energy resilience in the long-term. International energy security and economic stability are at risk due to the increasing global geopolitical conflicts. Being the third-largest oil consumer in the world, India is still very reliant on imported fossil fuel. It imports about 88-89 percent of its crude oil needs which exposes the economy to external shocks. This paper assesses the vulnerability of India based on geopolitical risk analysis, energy demand modeling and economic simulation and paper is a part of the policy debate as it incorporates economic modeling as well as geopolitical models as a guide to long-term energy resilience. It suggests a multi-layered approach consisting of renewable expansion, advantages from EVs and strategic reserves. The results show that India will be able to decrease its energy vulnerability, by 40-60 percent, by 2040 through concerted policy efforts. The world has become highly vulnerable to global geopolitical battles that are affecting the security of international energy and the stability of its economies. India, being the third-largest oil consumer in the world, is still very dependent on imported fossil fuels. Its crude oil needs, which are about 88-89 percent, are met by imports and this exposes the economy to foreign shocks. This paper also assesses the vulnerability of India through the geopolitical risk analysis, energy demands model, and economic simulation with the use of the economic simulation. It suggests a multi-layered approach consisting of renewable expansion, advantages from EVs and strategic reserves. The results show that with a concerted effort by policies, India can cut its energy vulnerability by 40-60 percent by the year 2040.
Gupta et al. (Sun,) studied this question.